A mathematical evaluation of vote transfer systems

The paper builds a general model of vote transfer systems on the basis of the current Hungarian electoral rules. It combines single-seat districts and list mandates with three possible compensation rule for ’wasted’ votes in constituencies: no compensation (direct vote transfer, DVT), compensation for votes cast for losing party candidates (positive vote transfer, PVT) and compensation for all votes that are not necessary to win the district (negative vote transfer, NVT). The model is studied in the case of two parties. When the number of votes for the majority party follows a uniform distribution in each district, DVT results in the greatest expected seat share, however, application of PVT, and, especially, NVT increases the probability of winning the election. The trade-off between vote transfer formulas and the number of list mandates reveals that the majority party should use an appropriately calibrated NVT system if it focuses on these two variables.